Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Economic Analysis: China To Replace America As The Reserve Currency In 20 Years Time

Hello All,

The above subject title is a zinger no doubt of which I'm piggy backing onto a report published last year in April 2011 by the IMF (International Monetary Fund). This IMF report stipulates that in or around the year 2016 China will over take the United States as the chief global economy. China has already displaced Japan as the number 2 global economy sometime in 2011 or so. This IMF report does note many have suspected that this occurrence of China becoming the supreme global economy wouldn't happen until the year 2020 or 2030. The article below articulates that China's purchasing power parity will continue to rise eventually eclipsing that of the United States.

Here's an article below explaining this mega trend forecast:

China Becomes The #1 Global Economy In 2016

Now what I'm about to explain is my own personal take on this economic phenomena that China has become in recent decades. I'm not a professional economic adviser nor I'm I employed in the financial industry. I am an amateur Futurist with a firm grasp of societal trends at least when it comes to the long term. Including my Intuitive skills which have been cited previously in my past blog posts. Nonetheless this is Food for Thought as a predictive analysis on my part for you the reader to consider. Whether I'm accurate or not only time will tell, if I'm vindicated or embarrassed by these statements. I would rather hope I'm embarrassed chocking this up to a growing pain. For what I'm forecasting isn't catastrophic, but it is highly disheartening in American - Sino relations.

Many alarmists would compare the Chinese State to that of the former Soviet Union in contrast to International relations. Will China become a military threat to the United States? No, rather the Russian's have more to fear from China as relations will dissolve due to a combination of Russian arrogance and corruption. Right now its clear that President Putin is a Czar of his own making with the Russian State. The endemic governmental and business climate in terms of corruption will continue to rot unfortunately the Russian State. Within 20 years time Russian officials will price gouge the Chinese State for their energy petroleum needs. Where the land locked borders will erupt with conflict at this time the Chinese military will outclass the Russian military strength and technology. The Chinese will undoubtedly seize Russian petroleum assets and territory for itself after all is said and done. Pushing many in the West into panic due to the self-fulfilling prophecy of China expanding its own borders through force.

If the IMF report proves true that the Chinese in 2016 surpasses the United States as the global principle economy. Expect that within the decade of the years 2016-2026 the chorus of national economies will push for China to become the worlds reserve currency. Of course the United States will fight such efforts through petty bickering, threats, sabotage, leading to a full blown Trade War. During such a decade between 2016-2026 the American national debt will surpass 16 trillion dollars. Currently the American national debt is at 16 Trillion dollars. Right now I consider this Great Recession to also being America's "Lost Decade". Not unlike that of the Japanese Lost Decade in the 1990's and for many of the same reasons ours is happening right now.

This Trade War I'm predicting with China will be fierce and ugly. Where ultimately the United States opens up a can of whoop ass onto itself where through humility they'll lose such a fight. Many will state this to be the final hurray of American Exceptional in the middle of the 21st century. If only it was sour grapes between governments, but the fervor against Chinese economic might will reach a crescendo. Having the late 1800's of the American Victorian era "Yellow Peril or Terror" return rearing its ugly head. At the onset of the American Industrial Revolution there erupted a racial backlash against the Chinese laborers across America. Since in reality Chinese immigrants built much of what was Victorian America such as the rail roads and other aspects of infrastructure. The United States in 1875 enacted the "Page Act" and in 1882 the "Chinese Expulsion Act". America has had a sour history with Asian discrimination including the Japanese internment camps in the 1940's of World War II.

So what I'm saying is there will be a relapse of Asian discrimination in America. Due to the ensuing trade war I'll predict with China where the polarization becomes so ugly Asian discrimination breaks out. The Chinese for their part will recognize American actions are that of futility and will have its own reprisals against American interests in China. American citizens for the most part working or doing business in China will not face the level of discrimination Chinese-Americans will be facing in the States. An Irony to say the least and for its part China having been decried as cheaters for its currency manipulation. Will be far more gracious knowing they'll be the victors economically speaking.

Before the first few marginal nations such as those in the Middle East (ie Iran), Russian, and South American States (ie Venezuela) start to push for Chinese Reserve currency status. As the years go by the first foolish outcries by these marginal states will be joined by the more sensible Western global powers in Europe and elsewhere. Many global investors will be moving away from the American dollar in a de-facto order. Towards the Swiss Franc, British Pound, and the Chinese Yuan as the currency mix of investments. So as to diversify their interests away from American holdings in their portfolio's. The Euro currency will still be in shambles from its past continental recession, which was actually an economic depression for Spain, Italy, and so forth. Between the years 2016-2026 America will encounter another recession outside that of this present "Lost Decade". America for its part has been numbering one economic recession every decade throughout the 20th century and into the 21st century. Once China triumphs as the global reserve currency America's economy will take a nose dive due to the outstanding national debt. There will be a negative run on the American dollar as a currency. The Chinese will buy American Treasuries in order to offer assurances it won't dump onto the global market its own American debt holdings.

It will be many decades before America's reputation for fiscal governance and Asian good will is fostered after the Trade War with China. We are already seeing signs of the animosity with China over the Ralph Lauren American Olympic uniforms being manufactured in China. Expect the societal attitudes to become further embittered with Chinese prowess with its economic might.

American Political Rancor With Chinese Garment Industry